By Democratic calculations, the economy will have to add 86,000 jobs a month through the end of Mr. Bush's first term in January 2005 before he would even tie President Dwight D. Eisenhower for last place in job creation.
It includes $100 billion for an upfront job-creation and infrastructure program, instructions to expedite an overhaul of the tax code that would raise $975 billion over 10 years and could not be filibustered, and spending cuts and interest savings that total $975 billion, by Democratic calculations, and $646 billion in increases, by Republican accounting.
By the best-case Democratic calculation, party strategists believe that Republicans must beat about 35 sitting Democrats if the parties split 16 highly competitive open seats and Democrats win four of five Republican seats they see as within their reach in Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois and Louisiana.
By 2012, moderate to conservative whites had fallen to 28percentt of the party, white liberals made up 30percentt, and minorities had grown to 48percentt of Democratic voters, according to calculations by fivethirtyeight.com.
Given the current composition of the House, 25 Republicans would have to join the 193 Democrats to impeach Trump and of course that calculation assumes Democratic unanimity, which is far from certain.
Siding with O'Malley this time — when Clinton is the overwhelming Democratic favorite — was a calculation based on personal ties.
Complicating any potential new defense secretary is a calculation among Democratic defense notables: whether to be Obama's final Pentagon chief or to hold out to run the Pentagon for the next Democratic president, such as expected candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton.
With Gov. George E. Pataki at his side, Mr. Lazio invoked the memory of Mr. Cuomo, the former Democratic governor, in the calculation that the animosity that contributed to Mr. Cuomo's defeat, particularly in this part of New York, remains fresh six years later.
"We're not talking about figuring out the DNA strand here," said Jon Ralston, Nevada's most respected and widely quoted political reporter, who said he had already identified the state's biggest winner: "Me!" How Nevada changes the calculation for Democratic contenders is a matter of debate within incipient campaigns, a sort of election wild card.
The strategy reflects a calculation by Democratic leaders in both the House and Senate that the best approach politically is to deny Republicans the opportunity to put themselves on record against the current policy in Iraq, leaving them to explain to voters why they have steadfastly backed President Bush on the war.
As Mr. Mondale's surprise choice, Ms. Ferraro rocketed to national prominence, propelled by fervid feminist support, a spirited and sometimes saucy personality, canny political skills and the calculation by Democratic strategists that Reagan might be vulnerable on issues thought to be more important to women.
