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"Huge amounts of capacity will come online in about five years, prompting a deflationary situation".
"Economies can recover from deceleration, but it's harder to recover from a deflationary situation.
Mr. Soros says that "we are currently facing a deflationary situation.
In a deflationary situation, he said, a central bank has somewhat more difficulty in responding because it is impossible to reduce interest rates below zero.
"It signaled to the market loud and clear that it was willing to do almost anything it had to do to have the U.S. not go into a deflationary situation".
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What Japan needs, then, is to boot itself out of its deflationary trap; and a situation where there isn't too much economic slack is actually a very good time to do that.
The fear has always been of a "debt-deflationary" cycle - a situation in which falling prices lead to reduced profits for businesses and subsequent wage cuts.
Problem is, you can get a crisis situation if you get a deflationary spiral.
Underlying Japan's accelerating frugality is a "deflationary gap" of 40 trillion yen in the Japanese economy, a situation where total demand falls short of what an economy produces.
"A continuation of the expansionary fiscal stance is necessary to prevent a deflationary spiral and a further worsening of the employment situation". The report said that after a contraction of 2% in 2009 – the fastest fall in global output since 1945 – the world economy would grow by about 3.5% in 2010, spearheaded by the three leading developing countries of China, India and Brazil.
In a destructive deflationary environment — whether Japan today or the U.S. in the 1930s, a comparable situation — lenders are too demoralized to lend and borrowers are afraid to borrow, despite low interest rates.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com