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Further declines in housing prices are baked into the cake.
The bank has a strong deposit base, but the uncertainty of the financial markets and the declines in housing values have clouded its outlook.
There was strength in spending on hotels and office buildings but continued declines in housing, which has been in a slump for two years.
Banks submitted capital plans in early January that were then run through a hypothetical situation that tested their ability to withstand "very high unemployment rates and significant further declines in housing prices," the regulator said Tuesday.
Stagnant wages, coupled with the recent stock market slide and further declines in housing prices, have left consumers feeling not well-off enough to significantly increase their spending, which would encourage hiring.
On top of rising unemployment in December and depressed holiday sales at many major retailers, there were signs of a worsening credit squeeze, new declines in housing starts and worries about the companies that insure mortgage-backed securities.
Similar(38)
"The extended data now show that declines in house prices stimulate large and significant decreases in household spending," they reported.
Likewise, some panics follow particularly big declines in house and stock prices, which have damaging effects on their own.
"Some of the areas with the largest declines in house prices during the crisis have shown the strongest increases in prices more recently," Mr. Silver said.
Reluctant as mortgage lenders are to talk down the market, even the Halifax and Nationwide expect "modest" declines in house prices this year.
THE United States may have already entered a recession set off by the upheaval in the subprime mortgage market and sharp declines in house prices nationwide.
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