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It cannot spread fast enough from one household to the next to cause the huge number of cases that we saw during the Black Death epidemics," said Dr Tim Brooks, a scientist from Porton Down, who was not part of the Crossrail team, will put forward his theory in a Channel 4 documentary, Secret History: The Return of the Black Death,on Sunday.
Figure 1 illustrates the differences in monthly mortality between Y .pestis plague and suspected medieval Black Death epidemics.
Moreover, mortality peaks by month in Figure 2 are consistent over time and exhibit no significant difference between the peak epidemic months in suspected Black Death epidemics throughout the time series (p = 0.59).
Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics.
A third option is the possibility of climate changes affecting disease transmission, but we discount this possibility due to the centuries across which suspected Black Death epidemics were recorded.
We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution.
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Second, using the field data for calibration we applied the machine-learning method, maximum entropy, to predict the actual distribution of the sudden oak death epidemic.
St. Ives was granted an eight-day fair by Henry I in 1110 and developed in consequence until the fair was suspended during the Black Death epidemic in 1349.
Spring – a severe Black Death epidemic begins in the Crimea.
The family also purchased land cheaply after the Black Death epidemic of 1348.
The Black Death epidemic hit England; starting in 1348, it eventually killed up to half of England's inhabitants.
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