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However, in outbreaks where wards were not closed, the length of outbreaks were similar to the prompt closure group and also had fewer patients and staff affected and fewer cases per day of outbreak compared with prompt closure.
Outbreaks where wards were not closed had fewer patients and staff affected and fewer cases per day of outbreak compared with prompt closure (the baseline group) but there was no statistical evidence for a difference in the duration of closure.
However, the median duration of closure, staff affected and average cases per day of outbreak were higher in the prompt closure group (Kruskal-Wallace rank sum tests all p<0.001).
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Note that days are treated as single snapshots of the surveillance region with no temporal context, and the area under the ROC curve gives us a measure of the quality of detection of an outbreak from observing only a single day of the outbreak regardless of how far into the outbreak's progression that day is.
These had coincidently been sampled in the period from six days before, until the day of the outbreak in connection with another research project, and they did not show clinical signs of respiratory disease at the time of sampling.
We also estimated the number of people affected on each day of the outbreak, calculated as the total number of people affected during the outbreak (staff plus patients) divided by the length of the outbreak (as defined above).
Missed outbreaks, for which no alarms were sounded on any day of the outbreak, were excluded from timeliness calculations.
We ran each method through each day of an outbreak as would be done in real practice, and tracked whether the outbreak was detected and, if so, how long it took to detect.
For each individual, i, in the survey, we have records of a i their age at the start of the outbreak; φ i whether they were infected during the outbreak (φ = 1 ) or not (φ = 0 ); ϑ i the day of the outbreak on which they were infected (if any); d itk the number of days that had passed on day t of the outbreak since housemate, k, became infectious.
The analysis of number of cases per day (although limited because it is essentially an average) suggests that some outbreaks were 'slow burning' in which there are a just a few new cases occurring each day of the outbreak.
On Friday, the second day of the outbreak, Graham closed Chapman early, and on Monday he reopened it.
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