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On the basis of a mark-recapture study in Colorado lasting more than 30 years, Arpat Ozgul and Tim Coulson of Imperial College London and colleagues examined changes in dates of emergence from hibernation, body mass, survival, and reproduction in response to gradual warming trends.
Otterstatter, unpublished), and the observed abundance of wild workers at our study sites during early summer (June), to back-calculate the dates of emergence: roughly four weeks prior to our first collecting date at Exeter, and five weeks prior to our first collecting data at Leamington.
Thus, a dam could disrupt a match between the actual and the optimal dates of emergence.
As a second step, we used predicted dates of emergence to estimate the potential impact on fitness.
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First, we must know the degree to which a dam advances the date of emergence.
Length of PTA was recalculated as the difference between the date of injury and the date of emergence from PTA.
We used hypothetical functions describing the relationship between the date of emergence and s1; these functions differed in the optimal date of emergence and the strength of selection on the timing of emergence (Fig. 4).
Therefore, we conducted a sensitivity analysis by exploring a set of plausible relationships between the date of emergence and s1.
The time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of a random sample of viruses provides an upper bound to the date of emergence of an epidemic.
We allow for a YOY maturity decision at the time of emergence, based on the date of emergence and initial growth rate.
The origin and date of emergence of this ST are unknown because of lack of microbiologic surveillance outside Niamey before 2002.
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