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"There's also a short-term, cyclical effect at work," he said.
First, there is the normal cyclical effect of a recession in raising unemployment-related spending and reducing tax revenues.
A more powerful cyclical effect, he said, is the tendency of markets to rise in the third year of a presidential term, particularly for first-term presidents.
But a "more positive media image" of men in independent schools (however unfair to those in the state sector) may also contribute, he suggests, together with the cyclical effect of men joining schools that already employ male teachers.
On the other hand, investment in inventories has been about as volatile and as cyclical this decade as in the past and inventories, though smaller than before, are still big enough to exert a clear cyclical effect.
And numbers of first-time buyers and buy-to-let loans are not necessarily mirror images both were growing just before the crunch, for example (see chart).Rather than being just a cyclical effect, the growth in demand for private rentals fits into a broader pattern.
Similar(44)
Both tax and spending are subject to cyclical effects.
That is, some cyclical effects, some random noise and a secular steadily rising trend from human activity?
One problem that economists always have in analyzing the economy is separating cyclical effects, which are temporary, from structural effects, which have long-term implications.
"In recent years I think we are mostly seeing cyclical effects rather than anything that can be tied to a state policy".
Economists agree this reflects a combination of both cyclical effects (people quit looking for jobs when they conclude they are scarce) and structural effects (aging baby boomers are retiring, and women's participation has levelled off).
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com