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Transition probabilities SD → PD treated with TRA, PD → death after TRA and PD → death with EST were estimated using the same principle: the number of months that it took for ≥20% of the population to remain in health state (SD or PD) was used to calculate the per cycle probabilities of progression to PD or death.
In the second scenario, both transition and exacerbation probabilities of the first year were assumed to remain constant during years 2 to 5. In other words, the first year probabilities as shown in Table 1 (under the heading "Subsequent cycle probabilities, year 1") and 2 were applied to the later years.
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Due to lack of data, the authors have assumed a 35% per cycle probability of reaching the subacute health state and varied the base case probability in a sensitivity analysis from 0%to100%0%to100%
The cycle probability of transition from the severe COPD state to the very severe COPD state was estimated as the reciprocal of the average estimated time (T) in the severe COPD state for males and females separately.
Authors found that each 10-μg/L increase in mothers' serum concentrations of p, p′-DDT and p, p′-DDE during pregnancy was associated with a 32% reduction and a 16% increase, respectively, in their daughters' per cycle probability of pregnancy (Cohn et al. 2003).
Corresponding per-cycle probabilities for patients with a platelet count <50 × 10/L were calculated as 40.77 and 3.69 %, respectively [ 21].
25 In previous economic studies involving sequences of fresh and frozen cycles, probability of oocyte retrieval was typically either not considered or based on incomplete evidence.
The probability of experiencing bleeding was based on clinical trial data: patients who had a platelet count ≥50 × 10/L were assumed to have a 12.64 % per-cycle probability of an outpatient bleed (i.e. not requiring hospitalization) and a 0.30 % per-cycle probability of an inpatient bleed (requiring hospitalization) [ 21].
There can be several strategies to simulate the life cycle employment probabilities in the case of the dynamic model.
After division, newborn cells either re-start the cycle, with probability θ, or enter the quiescent compartment, with probability 1- θ.
The cycle overflow probability is just the proportion of cycles with occupied detector at end of green time phases.
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