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It is likely this bipartisan panel will split over whether to include revenue increases and cutbacks in entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security.
If a serious down payment on long-term deficit reduction is enacted this year, it will have to be bipartisan and include cutbacks in entitlements and higher taxes; the real road map will be Bowles-Simpson.
Congress then could replace the across-the-board discretionary spending cuts under sequestration with cutbacks in entitlements, including some means-testing and changes to cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security and other programs, as well as increased revenue from modest reductions in deductions for the wealthy, without raising rates.
The cherished, elusive grand bargain — significant cutbacks in entitlements and more revenue, coupled with short-term stimulus spending on infrastructure and other programs — would bolster the economy, increase market confidence and perhaps reduce some of the political pettiness that engulfs Washington.
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They will suffer; but so also will the rest of us, to the degree that their economic intransigence and illiteracy pulls the administration towards a settlement in which cutbacks in entitlement programs are traded for modest tax hikes on the super-rich.
Do they want to rein in entitlements?
WASHINGTON — A grand fiscal bargain, with perhaps $2 trillion more in deficit reduction over 10 years — more than a quarter of which would be additional revenue, with much of the rest obtained through well-crafted, significant cutbacks in big-ticket entitlements — could have been a win-win for Republicans and Democrats.
There's also a consensus, among serious experts and every bipartisan commission that has studied the issue, that it can be addressed only with cutbacks in the growth of entitlements like Medicare and with higher taxes.
Others will vote for the drug bill with the idea of taking the political gain now and hoping that the monster deficits over the horizon will force cutbacks on entitlements later in the decade.
The plan's limits on tax deductions and cutbacks in the generosity of entitlement benefits for upper-income households render the plan a progressive reform.
Every serious bipartisan proposal to tackle the long-term budget deficit — Bowles-Simpson, the commission led by Ms. Rivlin and former Senator Pete V. Domenici, Republican of New Mexico, the National Academy of Sciences — calls for a combination of cutbacks in the growth of entitlement spending, curbing discretionary spending, including defense, and some tax increases.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com