He correctly pointed out that, in general, players' statistical performances form a bell curve in which they improve into their late 20s and decline after their early 30s.
Some economists posit an environmental Kuznets curve, in which pollution first deteriorates and then improves as countries develop.
WHITHER THE MARKETS? -- Markets open tomorrow after lackluster late-December trading that was notable mostly for the bond market's inverted yield curve, in which the yields of 2-year Treasury notes moved higher than those on 10-year notes.
But it also reflects the recognition that pitchers, unlike position players, do not display a stable aging curve, in which they improve until a certain point and then begin to decline.
The United States has experienced so many crises since Mr. Bush took office that it sometimes feels as if the nation has embarked on one very long and painful learning curve in which every accepted truism becomes a doubt, every expectation a question mark.
You write (editorial, April 14): "The United States has experienced so many crises since Mr. Bush took office that it sometimes feels as if the nation has embarked on one very long and painful learning curve in which every accepted truism becomes a doubt, every expectation a question mark.
Another recurring theme in the bond market is the effect of the government budget surplus and buyback program, which have caused an inverted yield curve, in which investors who take on more risk by owning long-term debt are paid less than those holding short-term instruments.
The Atlantic points to the Oscar bait of "Anna Karenina," starring previous nominee Keira Knightley in the title role; a new film from Clint Eastwood, "Trouble the Curve," in which the 81-year-old director will also star as an aging baseball scout; and "Won't Back Down," which will give Viola Davis another chance to make Oscar history, as she plays a crusading teacher.
Both books presented an adaptive-expectations Phillips curve, in which inflation depended both on the unemployment rate and on lagged inflation, which was supposed to determine expectations: Inflation rate = -α u – NAIRU) + Lagged inflation rate where u was the unemployment rate and the NAIRU was the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment.
If financial markets followed the normal bell-shaped distribution curve, in which meltdowns are very rare, the stockmarket crash of 1987, the interest-rate turmoil of 1992 and the 2008 crash would each be expected only once in the lifetime of the universe.This is changing the way many financial firms think about risk, says Greg Case, chief executive of Aon, an insurance broker.
Perhaps they are catching up with the mood in the bond markets, where the inverted yield curve (in which short rates are higher than long rates) has, many believe, for months been pointing to a slowdown.But the gloom thesis is not really borne out by recent economic data, which have shown, for example, strong American employment gains and buoyant German manufacturing.
