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The uncertainty in case reporting is assessed as distance (d(hat {s}(O))) from the outbreak source (Eq. 1 and Section "Outbreak detection: linking patterns and processes"), that is related to the variability in the reported cases expressed by the function of cumulated cases C t) over the epidemic.
Numbers of incident cases are the cumulated cases, i.e. the number of new cases within a specified time period divided by the size of the population initially at risk.
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Incorporating age dependent susceptibility led to a cumulated proportion of cases over 40 years old of 12%.
At the end of a year (y), from the data base we have the total number of cumulated detected HIV cases (H0) and the number of new detections in the same year (Hy).
Although only 3% of simulations resulted in a major outbreak (i.e. more than 1000 cases), the cumulated number of cases could reach up to several thousands in the worst-case scenario (Fig. 6A).
A new cluster of seven infections in Hoping Hospital in Taipei was reported on that day (3 ), however, starting a chain of local transmissions that cumulated in 116 probable cases and 10 deaths in a fortnight.
For (vartheta_{1}in(a_{1},vartheta_{ast})) (or (vartheta_{1}in (vartheta_{ast},a_{1})) depending on the case), the cumulated duration of the accelerated phases does not depend on (vartheta_{1}) (in particular because the last rapid phase stops when the coordinate reaches (n+a_{1})).
However, assuming that the risk of contamination was proportional to exposure, with no age dependent susceptibility, the model failed to reproduce the observed age characteristics of the vCJD cases: The predicted cumulated proportion of cases over 40 years was 48%, in strong disagreement with the observed 10%.
In Nigeria, a cumulated total of 5.3 million cases had been reported with a national HIV prevalence rate of 5.7% and a high level of regional variation in HIV prevalence [ 27].
Figure 2 shows the cumulated monthly distribution of these cases (based on date of onset of symptoms) and indicates the usual main peak in incidence of infection in late spring (May–June).
The comparison of microstructure maps with the local mechanical state evaluated by finite element calculations shows that the 45° directional coarsening appears in case of very high cumulated strain values (above 10%), independent of the stress sign.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com