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"Without a credible fiscal policy, as many other countries learned in this crisis, you don't have a credible monetary policy and your market rates go up.
And Mr Fraga will have to implement a credible monetary policy based on an inflation target.The other, and perhaps bigger risk, is that Brazil's recession is more severe than the IMF expects.
Such a ruse relied on credible monetary policy in both Britain and America.In this section A reluctant patient Cold comfort Afloat but not buoyant In their sights Downgraded Pelt tightening Dropping the shopping Great barrier grief ReprintsOf the two America is often seen as the main culprit for the spread of protectionism.
These issues were discussed at a recent symposium held, appropriately, at the International Monetary Fund.Most economists and policymakers agree that the euro, if backed by a credible monetary policy, will eventually play a more important global role than its constituent European currencies do today.
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And another: fix the exchange rate against, say, the dollar or the D-mark, and in effect adopt America's or Germany's credible monetary policies.Sometimes these approaches have worked.
This accords with a story of credible monetary policies linked to well-understood inflation targets.
Terrence Checki of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York got it half right when he said recently, "Fundamentals are fundamental," and "experience suggests that one cannot overstate the importance of sound economic management, strong fiscal positions, credible proactive monetary policy and rigorous financial-sector oversight".
The search committee should identify and attract experienced professionals who would be able to put in place and maintain a credible independent monetary policy, no matter how loudly local politicians bang on the table.
On the other hand, economies that did better tended to be those with more credible fiscal and monetary policy.
It will require strong and committed governments with credible fiscal and monetary policies and the political willpower to take on some of the largest multinational companies.
Still, economists say the peso will go on sliding until the government puts in place credible fiscal and monetary policies that can begin to rebuild confidence in the country's sputtering economy.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com