This isn't our central case but, when the path is credible and the margin for error is slim, a nervous equity market will start to discount it.
For instance, with recent Labor TPP poll results in the 46-48 range, my model is currently producing an estimate of 45.8% TPP with a 95% credible interval (or "margin of error") of +/- 1.4 percentage points.
Newspoll's 1.8-point underestimate of the Labor primary vote in 2010 was largely offset by a 2.1-point overestimate of the Greens' House of Representatives vote – both misses are very close to or outside a conventional 95% credible interval or "margin of error" for a poll with a sample size this large – resulting in a two-party preferred estimate that was virtually dead-on.
My colleague Guardian Australia political editor, Lenore Taylor, reports: An independent analysis by the Treasury has stuck with economic forecasts the federal Coalition has labelled "not credible" but has provided margins of error and lengthy explanations to explain volatility in its recent economic predictions.
Our sample size exceeded the minimum recommended sample size for reproducibility studies, we therefore contend the error margins are credible estimates and not unduly influenced by an inadequate sample size.
The Mexican and Russian segments have credible intervals (similar to a margin of error) of +/- 5 percentage points, and the Spain sample has a credible interval of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Spicer's statement that there are about 12 million people in the country illegally is safely within the margin of error in credible demographics research.
He noted that the council had already allowed a recount of invalid ballots, even though the A.K.P. presented no credible evidence, other than a narrow margin, that there had been irregularities.
Some more solidarity would make the horror at the daily drama on the margins of affluence more credible".. Spain's El Pais reported on the sinking and said: "The only thing that is different is the number.
Morsi prevailed over his opponent, former general and some-time Mubarak era Prime Minister, Ahmed Shafik by a credible three and a half percentage point margin of 51.7percentto48.3percentcent.
