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The largest rupture scenarios for 1833 are thus beyond the uppermost credible limit to account for all the slip deficit accumulated since 1255 AD.
† 95% CI – 95% Confidence (frequentist) or Credible (Bayesian) limits ‡ CLR – Confidence or Credible limit ratio = (upper 95% limit/lower 95% limit).
The corresponding annual absolute risk reduction (ARR) was 0.99 admissions per 100 patients (95% credible limit 0.17 to 1.86, p = 0.018).
We report 95% confidence intervals for frequentist models and 95% credible limits for Bayesian models, and to reflect precision we calculated Confidence Limit Ratios (CLR) or Credible Limit Ratios (CrLR), which equal the upper 95% confidence/credible limit divided by the lower 95% limit [ 41].
For lengths of stay of one night or more we observed a stronger effect – adjusted relative risk 0.896; relative risk reduction 10.41% (95%, credible limit 0.820 to 0.979, p = 0.015).
ASD: Autism spectrum disorder; CHARGE: Childhood autism risks from genetics and environment; CI: Confidence interval; CLR: Confidence limit ratio; CrI: Credible interval; CrLR: Credible limit ratio; DAG: Directed acyclic graph; JAGS: Just another gibbs sampler; MIND: Medical investigation of neurodevelopmental disorders; OR: Odds ratio.
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We used the Bayesian credible limits estimated by the SSM to (1) gauge our level of confidence in space-use estimates and (2) incorporate uncertainty into management recommendations.
The Ne values from accepted simulated populations are used to estimate the effective size of the input population and its 95% credible limits for the posterior distribution.
From the posterior distributions of location estimates, the SSM yields variance (standard deviations and 95% credible limits) for each location with narrower posterior distributions resulting in smaller variance.
We estimated locations and associated credible limits at five-hour intervals; we chose this time interval as it reflects the average number of Argos locations per day for these animals.
The credible limits from these densities can define thresholds for sensitivity analyses.
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