"Not only do I find no evidence of research misconduct," Dr. Crawley wrote, "but I also find no credible evidence of technical error".
The concept of fault or failure tolerance means that the design must endure a minimum number of credible failures or operator errors without resulting in a hazardous consequence.
This isn't our central case but, when the path is credible and the margin for error is slim, a nervous equity market will start to discount it.
For instance, with recent Labor TPP poll results in the 46-48 range, my model is currently producing an estimate of 45.8% TPP with a 95% credible interval (or "margin of error") of +/- 1.4 percentage points.
Newspoll's 1.8-point underestimate of the Labor primary vote in 2010 was largely offset by a 2.1-point overestimate of the Greens' House of Representatives vote – both misses are very close to or outside a conventional 95% credible interval or "margin of error" for a poll with a sample size this large – resulting in a two-party preferred estimate that was virtually dead-on.
The posterior summary estimates by the MCMC algorithm, especially by Gibbs sampler, like posterior mean, standard errors, Monte carol error, and HPD credible intervals were estimated using winBUGS software.
To study the frequentist properties of our proposed procedures, we have performed a Monte Carlo study that shows that our proposed Bayesian reference approaches compare favorably to a posterior analysis based on a competing prior in terms of coverage of credible intervals, relative mean squared error, and mean length of credible intervals.
The credible interval coverage, relative bias, error, and HPD bound defined here are similar to the corresponding measures used by H eled and D rummond (2008).
Studies have shown that doubling the number of independent loci can reduce error and 95% credible intervals in demographic reconstruction by √2 [ 55].
Our sample size exceeded the minimum recommended sample size for reproducibility studies, we therefore contend the error margins are credible estimates and not unduly influenced by an inadequate sample size.
