If weights could be assigned, for example in a Bayesian sense, then such mixed models would be crucial for creating forecast models with large enough probability gains to have societal impacts.
The app gets some of its smarts from AI, which it uses to create forecasts about package volume and weight based on analysis of historical data.
Taking on that challenge with highly complex real-world data, however, was daunting, so the pair instead asked the system to create forecasts for synthetic, idealized earthquakes, and then they examined the predictions.
While forecasting the health of the Social Security trust funds has long been part of the program — each year, the administration creates forecasts that look one, five, 10, 20, and even 75 years into the future — the study conducted by the Harvard-Dartmouth team is the first by anyone inside or outside of the government to evaluate their accuracy.
Researchers have long had access to such data, but it hasn't "been put into this kind of picture that people could readily understand," says Sutherland, who works at OSU's Mesonet, which creates forecasts and other "data products" using weather stations and federal climatological data.
Robertson and his colleagues are working together to create forecast products that integrate forecasts across these multiple time scales in ways that make them more useful for applications.
Once this initial ensemble has been created, forecasting and assimilation can take place.
Not only are there constant exchange rate changes to keep up with, but Astral also needs to place production orders nine months in advance, which creates forecasting headaches in trying to predict seasonal demand for their shoes.
The company will provide a solution for online publishers to create, forecast, deliver and analyze online ad products based on an open platform that it says is able to communicate with value-add systems for aggregating data into one actionable view.
