Exact(22)
The approximately 15-year warming slowdown was linked to the negative phase of the PDO, which is also called its cool phase.
It should also help the public and policy makers understand that a cool phase does not mean the overall theory of human-driven warming is flawed, Dr. Trenberth said.
"We're in the cool phase now," said Adrián Calera-Grobet, manager at El Hostería La Bota (Regina 48; no phone), a bar that has been packed ever since Regina's transformation.
This cooling is the result of natural long-term swings in ocean surface temperatures, particularly swings in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation or mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which has lately been in a mega-La Niña or cool phase.
After a 15-year "cool" phase, during which the Pacific Ocean has dragged down the world's average surface temperature, the signs are it has entered a "warm" phase, according to Professor Scaife.
Other researchers, including NASA scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., reported separately on April 21 that a slowly fluctuating oscillation in Pacific Ocean temperatures had shifted into its cool phase, a condition that is also thought to exert an overall temporary cooling of the climate.
Similar(38)
The overwhelming majority of Arctic glaciers for which precise data are available have experienced negative mass balances (i.e., reduction in mass) in the 20th century broken only by temporary cool phases in the 1960s and '70s.
The research did not attempt to explore the causes of the warm and cool phases in the Atlantic, focusing instead on what it means for our weather.
The influence of warm or cool phases of AMO on precipitation extremes is not spatially uniform in the region.
The only good news, he says, is that the transition between warm and cool phases in the ocean can happen quickly and cold winters may be a precursor to that change.
Given that both of these natural effects were in their cool phases in 2007, it makes the unusual warmth this year all the more notable.
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