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The idea is that, despite some contrary indicators, America's revival has already begun.
Hardly the gushing endorsements we typically like to see as contrary indicators.
But governors have also often been contrary indicators on the national scene — another historic measure of how voters perhaps perceive them differently as the front-line face of government.
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If this contrary indicator was ever reliable, it is less so now, market technicians say.
In fact, if oil-price movements have any relevance at all in economic forecasting, it is as a contrary indicator.
Of course, Mr. McManus and many other professional investors view bearishness by small investors as a contrary indicator.
Mr. Breit finds VaR, a commonly used measure, useful only as a contrary indicator.
But it's less convincing as a magazine-cover contrary indicator.
Discount stores, including Wal-Mart, were an exception (which bodes ill; Wal-Mart is a contrary indicator).
But being aware of past economic growth does not help; or rather, it is a a contrary indicator.
"We have found that Wall Street's consensus equity allocation has historically been a reliable contrary indicator," said Audrey Kaplan, a quantitative strategist at Merrill Lynch.
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