An activist public health community needs to play a central role in engaging this constituency through data-driven research and scholarship.
The specific electoral effects of the 2009 10 expenses scandal have been studied using aggregate constituency-level data (Curtice et al., 2010; Eggers and Fischer, 2011; Pattie and Johnston, in press) and survey data with a pre- and post-election panel (Pattie and Johnston, in press).
So if we went through the data, constituency by constituency, and moved Green voters into the Labour column, what would happen?
We then impose the change in party support in each seat that we recorded in the relevant tier of data – constituency if it's available, sub-UK if that option is there instead, or UK-wide polling – for that constituency.
Without such boundary reforms, MPs could end up representing constituencies based on data that is over 20 years old, disregarding significant changes in demographics, house building and migration.
But they failed to predict how many seats she would win, a trickier task that requires more detailed, constituency-level polling data, he said.
"Compared with national polls, constituency-specific demographic data tends to be more sparse and less up-to-date, so it's more of a challenge to design a representative sample," he said.
It does that by looking at national polls, sub-UK data, and constituency polling, plus some historical context.
But the poll, in the absence of any other data beyond constituency and union nominations, will send shockwaves through a party establishment that never thought Corbyn's brand of anti-austerity politics had a chance of winning.
Even new constituency boundaries based on data from 2001, rather than the current ones based on the 1991 electoral register, will continue to lag behind the big demographic shifts from inner cities to prosperous suburbs.
