In reality, the effect on MPs' seats is more complex to measure as voters are not spread evenly across constituencies: some areas within may heavily favour one party, others its main rival.
This indirect electoral maths suggests that Ukip's outsize influence on the national debate (relative to their parliamentary presence) could be set to continue as the major parties seek to fend off the threat in their key marginal constituencies.
The same of course is also true of the Labour-SNP bloc of seats: even if Nicola Sturgeon's party were to win in 30-40 constituencies, and not in the 50 or more implied in the polls, most of those seats would be staying with Labour.
Labour is facing a desperate battle to stop a Scottish National party landslide after a poll showed the SNP had a clear but weaker lead across Labour constituencies in Scotland.
All command sizeable constituencies; all, however, bring some serious baggage into this election.
All four main party leaders were re-elected, topping the polls in their constituencies.
In Tory-held constituencies such as Pudsey – where Labour came second in 2010, and the Lib Dems were a decent third – they could lose if Lib Dem deserters return to Labour in numbers.
Those standing on its ticket regard their best route to survival as emphasising their personal and local track records in individual constituencies rather than their role in a governing party.
We announced 106 target seats in 2013, the crucial majority of which were Conservative-held constituencies in England and Wales.
In the event, in these constituencies there was an average swing of 1.4% away from us to the Tories.
Mick Tighe, a mountain guide who lives near Roy Bridge, outside Fort William, and who knew Kennedy, said: "I wonder how many MPs are born and bred in their constituencies, whose families go back generations in that constituency and still continued living in it".
