Indicators of manufacturing activity are stronger, but all business surveys are showing a pickup in the rate of price increases, consistent with forecasts for a continued rise in inflation over the course of this year.
The ZEW president, Wolfgang Franz, said in a statement that the data were consistent with forecasts for a 6percentt decline in German gross domestic product this year, with growth rates "likely to move around zero percent until the first months of 2010".
He said the numbers were consistent with forecasts that the Federal Open Market Committee, which next meets on Oct. 3, will remain on hold indefinitely.
With that said, the committee said it still believed "the contours of the economic outlook following the E.U. referendum had not changed" and a further cut in rates to just above zero is possible if the economic outlook is "judged to be broadly consistent" with its forecast in August.
This finding is consistent with the forecast contained in the Defense Department's comprehensive assessment of the policy before its repeal, and with subsequent public statements by various military leaders, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, and the defense secretary, Leon Panetta.
On Friday, UBS had said the $900.0 million cost of buying auction-rate securities from retail clients in the United States was consistent with its forecasts for the second quarter.
The report is consistent with analysts' forecasts that the economy will grow gradually through the rest of this year.
This is consistent with our forecast for unprecedented warmth in the coming year.
But if the economy continues to grow at or above trend, if we get confirming evidence that the realized inflation rate and also expectations and our forecasts for inflation are still on track -- in other words, if the incoming information is consistent with our forecast -- then I think the path that you see in the SEP is very consistent with the expectations of the committee.
Maury N. Harris, chief economist at PaineWebbber, said the "orders data are consistent with our forecast for G.D.P. growth to slow in the third quarter to 3.3percentt at an annual rate after 5.2percentt growth in the second quarter".
Overall, the survey was very consistent with the forecast that the model was already making in New Hampshire; Mr. Obama's chances of winning the state were roughly unchanged, declining to 72 percent from 73 percent.
