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Markets had earlier taken some encouragement when Austria's far-right presidential candidate was soundly defeated by a pro-European contender, confounding forecasts of a tight election.
But the monthly estimates of job creation are notoriously volatile, confounding forecasts almost every month and often prone to substantial revision in the months that follow.
Yet nature has a way of confounding forecasts, and the vintage has turned out to be more interesting than it had any right to be.
The headline activity index on the Markit/Cips UK manufacturing PMI fell to to 51.5 in August, from 51.9 in July, confounding forecasts for it to edge up to 52.0.
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Lord Mitchell wondered if driverless cars would confound forecasts of ever-rising rail passenger numbers.
Moreover, differences in the underlying weather variables being forecasted can confound forecasting performance.
China's economy has fallen into an unexpectedly deep slump, confounding government forecasts for a measured slowdown.
Figures released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics left the initial growth estimate for the third quarter of 2012 unrevised – confounding City forecasts that the increase would be cut to 0.9%, and confirming that the recession has ended.
But the UK's annual inflation rate stayed at 0.6% last month, confounding City forecasts of a small rise in the cost of living due to imports becoming more expensive.
Also on Monday, the financial data firm Markit said its so-called flash, or preliminary, manufacturing purchasing managers index for the United States retreated to 52.8 this month from 53.1 in August, confounding analysts' forecasts for an improvement.
As president, Mr Erdogan is theoretically above the political fray, but has clearly directed the AKP's strategy which has confounded all forecasts.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com