Examples of commonly used techniques using such time-ordered data include point process models, such as self-excited Hawkes processes [53], [54], Autoregressive Conditional Durations (ACD) [55], [56] or Autoregressive Conditional Intensity (ACI) [57].
Fig. 10 DATA (blue continuous line) vs. theoretical predictions (green, dashed line) conditional on the duration of the unemployment spell (short, h<3, vs long h=3) Fig. 11 DATA (blue continuous line) vs. theoretical predictions (green, dashed line) conditional on the size of accrued pension rights (from Low PR in the left column to high PR in the right column).
I have argued, though, that cyclical fluctuations should probably not be fully accommodated by changes in the activity level, implying that the fraction of unemployed job seekers who participate in activation should be (slightly) pro-cyclical, at least conditional on unemployment duration.
Several kinds of uncertainty principles are discussed, including the global uncertainty principle, the uncertainty principle of local duration and conditional standard deviation, the uncertainty principle of local bandwidth and conditional standard deviation, and the uncertainty principle of the conditional standard deviations in time and frequency.
British creatives will be welcome where they can provide a service or teach a skill which is not yet available from a Chinese company, but the welcome is conditional and of unpredictable duration.
The findings of this paper are particularly relevant for the design and implementation of redistributive programs, such as conditional cash transfers (CCTs), whose duration and level of benefits should depend on poverty duration and depth.
The second type of uncertainty principle: local duration-conditional standard deviation.
If instead we calculate the probability of being in a certain cell by using the conditional distribution of in-programme duration, i.e. conditional on being in a certain quantile of the pre-programme duration, we obtain weights to the nine different combinations of durations for each programme which are different from 1.
We apply a matching estimator with dynamic definition of participation and non-participation conditional on the elapsed welfare duration to estimate the average effect of treatment on the treated (ATT).
From top to bottom: average retirement hazard ((U rightarrow R)), re-entry hazard ((Urightarrow E)), and re-entry wages, conditional on (left column) unemployment duration, h, and (right column) accrued pension rights, PR.
