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The links between climate events and security outcomes are complex, contingent, and not understood nearly well enough to allow for prediction.
The British scholars Geoff Eley and David Blackbourn, in their 1984 book "The Peculiarities of German History," questioned the "tyranny of hindsight"—the lordly perspective that reduces a complex, contingent sequence of events to an irreversible progression.
There is an imperfect symmetry between the patterns of channel evolution observed during laboratory flume experiments and those which materialize in rivers exposed to ambient environmental conditions that produce hydrogeomorphic fluxes which are more complex, contingent, and unpredictable.
The problem seems hopeless if one understands probability in terms of frequency, for we do not seem to have any direct access to such complex, contingent facts as the ratio that one proposition is true relative to another (logically independent) one.
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Yet Churchland also makes beautifully clear how complex and contingent the simplest brain business is.
The forces in history are always multiple, complex, and contingent, much more so than the fables make it seem.
The complex and contingent set of circumstances that led to the rejection suggests such generalisation will not be easy.
In making its recommended cuts to the mayor, Ms. Levin said, her agency had decided to give priority to those building projects that were "already under construction, projects with particularly complex or contingent timing, and projects in city-owned facilities".
Human participants selected responses to stimuli using a complex, multiply contingent (third order) rule structure.
Ultimately, we find the process of transition to be complex and contingent; a hard slog not a leap frog toward a potentially more sustainable future.
Third, in both a cognitive and a phenomenological sense, the experience of spatial mystery and transparency is far more complex and contingent than the method adopted in this paper might suggest.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com