Key upside risks are much stronger-than-forecast capital formation, a bid for Standard Chartered or significant improvement in emerging market growth and commodity price prospects.
Mr. Brynjolfsson is confident about the long-term prospects for commodities but conceded that this might not be the best time to buy.
In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters.
"Oil moved up with a firmer stock market and more optimistic prospects for commodities going forward," said Edward Meir, energy analyst at MF Global.
Greenspans comments, combined with weak price prospects for commodities, seemed to do the most harm in Australia, whose fortunes are tied more directly than other Pacific countries to China's economic growth.
"In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters to levels consistent with price stability," the Fed said.
As Oxford Economics noted in a report, they have been hit by "an unpleasant cocktail of concerns over China's growth prospects, sliding commodity prices and the looming onset of tighter US monetary policy".
But I think the economy will bottom out soon, enhancing prospects that commodity demand will pick up there by the end of the year.
When independently raising their very long-term gloomy prospects regarding commodity prices, Hans Singer and Raul Prebisch in 1949 emphasized the two different sides of the equation.
A special issue of Business Day examines the durability of the stock upturn and reviews the prospects for bonds, commodities, oil and the dollar, as well as for the scandal-ridden mutual fund industry and the New York Stock Exchange.
