Using a stepped approach to a set of long historical time-series data, including climatic, pandemic, epidemic and social-political variables, a study by Kausrud and colleagues [ 1] published in BMC Biology concludes that naturally occurring climatic fluctuations, acting through their environmental, ecological and political impacts, may have influenced the human pandemic outbreaks.
"Oryx and Crake" is that book's companion piece there are many detailed echoes but the ingredients are genetic engineering, climatic catastrophe and global pandemic.
In particular, Chile experienced a south north gradient in climatic conditions during May 2009 as pandemic activity was building up, ranging from 3.3 to 9.3 g/kg for specific humidity and 6.4°C to 22°C for maximum temperature.
To the best of our knowledge this is the first study to explore the relationship between spatio-temporal variation in the dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic and demographic and climatic factors, and international travel patterns across a large range of latitudes.
Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics.
Although recent studies have highlighted latitudinal and climatic variations in contemporary influenza epidemics and pandemics (17 – 20 ), little is known about the role of climate in the severity or timing of the 1918 pandemic.
Yet there have been no reports from temperate locales of South America; this gap prevents a complete understanding of the epidemiology of the pandemic throughout the continent and across different climatic zones.
Several factors have been put forward as potential drivers of the spatio-temporal dynamics of influenza pandemics, including population contact rates, travel patterns, climatic conditions, and geography.
Although the main period of pandemic activity in Chile seems primarily correlated with local climatic conditions, we note that the timing of introduction of the first A/H1N1 cases (pandemic 'onset') was weakly associated with population size, with larger population centers experiencing earlier introductions than less populous regions.
Chile is a unique country; it spans an extensive latitudinal gradient, has a variety of climatic zones, and has preserved historical records dating back to the 1918 pandemic period.
Geographical variation in pandemic peak timing was associated with differences in latitude and climatic conditions, with latitude, maximum temperature and specific humidity accounting for 69-80% of the variability.
