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In the present work a spatiotemporal model, based on climatic forecast using the concept of growing degree days [ 16], retrospectively predicts a latitudinal and altitudinal spreading of the potential transmission area of Dirofilaria, mainly in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, near the boundaries where temperatures are close to the threshold for extrinsic incubation of parasite larvae.
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Improved estimation of evaporation over land will improve water resources management, weather, and climatic forecasts.
The study demonstrates that with excellent models of climatic forecasts readily available, one can predict the disease incidence at long forecasting horizons, using this method, with high degree of efficiency.
The study also demonstrates that with excellent models of climatic forecasts readily available, using this method one can predict the disease incidence at long forecasting horizons, with high degree of efficiency and based on such technique a useful early warning system can be developed region wise or nation wise for disease prevention and control activities.
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This also means that in a real world forecast climatic models needs to be developed and incorporated in detail into the biological considerations.
In Thomson, M. C., and R. G. Herrera (Eds), Climatic Change, Seasonal Forecasts and Human Health, Advances in Global Change Research AGLOO), Springer, Dordrecht, 13-29.
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