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For cultivars with chilling requirements above 1000 Chilling Hours, such as apples, cherries and pears, very few locations with safe chilling levels were found to exist today, and our modeling results project that virtually none will exist by mid century.
Agricultural scientists have developed mathematical models that are used by growers to select tree cultivars with chilling requirements that correspond to available chilling at a specific location.
At present, chilling requirements are only available in Chilling Hours for most species and cultivars, providing the only basis for projections of future ranges of tree crops (Fig. 3).
Currently, the orchard industry is poorly prepared for such a transition, since chilling requirements are only available for the Chilling Hours Model, whose accuracy is likely to decrease with further temperature increases [8], [14].
On a global scale, it is likely that most other growing regions of subtropical fruit and nut trees with chilling requirements will be similarly affected by declining winter chill.
Therefore, understanding the molecular mechanisms of pear dormancy transitions will greatly assist programs to breed cultivars with lower chilling requirements and to develop agronomic measures to cope with insufficient winter chill.
Chilling requirements vary among species and among their cultivated varieties.
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Low temperatures are essential to overcome endo-dormancy (chilling requirement), but high temperatures are also required for bud break (heat requirement).
Since 'Narve Viking' has a higher chilling requirement than 'Titania', this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of warming on spring phenology.
To expand the range where highbush blueberries can be grown commercially, breeding programs have selected varieties with reduced chilling requirement, leading to development of sub-varieties called 'southern highbush' because they require fewer days of colder temperatures to trigger flowering.
After the chilling requirement is met (artificially, about one month at approximately 0 to 5 °C [32 to 41 °F]), the buds enter winter dormancy (quiescence).
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