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While all of the above papers analyze corporate tax rate changes, changes to the tax base can also be important for investment decisions.
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The article concludes that the changes to the tax system introduced additional incentives for field developments but failed both to improve tax system design per se and to maximize government tax revenue.
The basic model to explain changes in the tax base by income level in a state is given by Δ AGI q = a 0 + a 1 ShareAGI q + a 2 CapGainsShare q + a 3 Burden q, (9).
Less complex reporting requirements would reduce another incentive to hide from the taxman.A second needed change is to shift the tax base from income towards consumption and property, which is both immobile and hard to hide.
Having established this correspondence, we next use simulation analysis to examine the relative importance of tax structure versus changes in the tax base in explaining revenue exposure.
Moreover, volatility may be magnified in states with more progressive tax structures, as bigger changes in the tax base at the top end are amplified by higher tax rates applied to that income.
The traditional approach to explaining volatility is to model overall changes in tax revenues over time as a function of the changes in the tax base for each individual tax – individual income tax, general and selective sales taxes, the corporation income tax and in a few states severance taxes – and the policy offsets which are imposed (Dye and McGuire 1991; Dye 2004).
Model (3) allows for interaction effects between tax burdens and changes in the tax base.
Section 4 analyzes the change in the tax base, with a focus on changes in top-quintile AGI, while Section 5 analyzes actual revenue changes as a function of tax structure and changes in the tax base.
In the subsequent section we examine the role of changes in the tax base, together with the initial tax structure, in explaining the observed change in revenues.
To the extent that changes in extraction activity or tourism are translated into changes in domestic income, the effects will be at least partially captured by changes in the tax base (AGI).
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