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They did, but it had mostly to do with changes in turnout.
It should be noted, however, that this method does not count for changes in turnout between 2008 and 2012.
And based on my formula to convert changes in turnout to changes in the popular vote, I estimate that this would reduce President Obama's margin against Mitt Romney by a net of 1.2 percentage points.
In cases where small changes in turnout can affect the outcome of the election, this strategy can be very effective.
In a wide open election where few expect any candidate to receive a majority and avoid a runoff, small changes in turnout in the West department could have a big impact on the results.
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Alternatively, I looked at the change in the popular vote margin between 2004 and 2008 as a function of the change in turnout.
"If the 2012 election comes down to a battle of inches," Sifry writes, "where a few percentage points change in turnout in a few key states, making all the difference, we may come to see Obama's investment in predictive modelers and data scientists as the key to victory".
(a) Page views of the general Wikipedia article on the European Parliament elections over time and (b) relative change in these page views compared to change relative change in turnout.
First, we have shown that the relative change in the number of page views to the general Wikipedia page on the election can offer a reasonable estimation of the relative change in turnout for that election at the country level.
Young whites demonstrated no change in turnout between 2004 and 2008.
In the graph I've plotted by county the percent vote for Gingrich against the percent change in turnout from 2008 to 2012.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.
Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com