Exact(33)
But changes in the unemployment rate tend to lag other economic indicators.
Each month, small changes in the unemployment rate receive great scrutiny.
That law, propounded by the late Arthur Okun, ties G.D.P. growth to changes in the unemployment rate.
In that case, changes in the unemployment rate for that group will tend to understate the relative impact of the recession on that group, he said.
It appears that changes in the unemployment rate do a poor job of explaining when and how people's assessment of their own lives changes.
Historically, changes in the default rate on credit cards have tended to track changes in the unemployment rate, with the notable exception of late 2005 and early 2006.
Similar(27)
Any.It is a mistake to do a linear extrapolation of the past rate of change in the unemployment rate.
They show both the change in the unemployment rate since September 2008 and the change in the number of people out of work.
However, there has been a relationship between the change in the unemployment rate in the months leading up to the election and how well the incumbent does.
"The change in the unemployment rate was statistically insignificant and a misleading sign of what is really going on," said Maury Harris, the chief United States economist at UBS Warburg.
Economists caution against putting too much weight on a single month's change in the unemployment rate, which sometimes moves erratically.
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