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The future return is equal to the current dividend yield, plus dividend growth, plus or minus any change in valuation.
In October, Heartland Advisors of Milwaukee said that the combined assets in two high-yield municipal funds it managed had shriveled to $58 million from $120 million in a single day because of a change in valuation methods.
Robert Ewald, president and chief executive of E-Stamp, said that "operating in a highly regulated environment, combined with the change in valuation models of Internet companies, were key factors" in the decision.
But the problem is that equity returns are a function of three things; the starting yield, the growth in profits (and thus dividends) and the change in valuation (which can increase or reduce returns).
The securitization system "didn't contemplate that there would be such a rapid change in valuation, and that this would happen during a time when there wouldn't be a functioning financial market," said D. Michael Van Konynenburg, the president of Eastdil Secured, a national brokerage firm, and the head of its loan sale team.
The difference between the two is driven by the change in valuation (which Mr Bogle dubs the "speculative return") as investors become more or less optimistic about the outlook.In any given year, the market return and the investment return can be a long way apart: the gap for American equities was over five percentage points in 105 out of 125 years of trading.
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Returns come from three sources; current dividend yield, dividend growth and a change in valuations.
Seed-stage definition creep, then, explains most of the change in valuations.
Indeed, changes in valuation may subtract from future returns.There is, however, some good news.
But for cross-industry deals, relative changes in valuation can turn a buyer into a seller, as About and Primedia have found.
Those returns have three components: the current level of dividend yield, real dividend growth and changes in valuation (moves in dividend-price ratios).Perhaps surprisingly, Messrs Dimson, Marsh and Staunton show that, equally weighted, the average equity market enjoyed no real dividend growth at all over the 1900-2005 period.
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