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According to some accounts, the historical origin of coin flipping is the interpretation of a chance outcome as the expression of divine will.
The path of evolution that led to human being existing in their current form, today, was by no means a given, but we are here to enjoy the fruits of that chance outcome.
Plus, the fact that Neally had a choice at all is a chance outcome of the severity of the embolism: If it had been something more severe, and he wasn't able physically to continue driving or make a decision, Autopilot would've engaged its failsafe mode, which decelerates the vehicle, turns on the four-way hazard lights and slowly moves the car to the roadside.
A permutation test ("y-scrambling") was carried out to assess whether this success rate was likely to be a chance outcome (the range of classification results obtained under the null hypothesis are indicated by the bars on Figure 3a, from which we estimate a p-value of < 10-6. We can conclude that there is a strong evidence of grouping present in our data.
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These play a crucial role in "moral luck", the phenomenon of chance outcomes influencing moral judgments1, 19,20,21,22.
The only hitch is that any given experiment based on the pseudo data will be just one sample of the distribution of chance outcomes.
Cage determined the content as well as the color and placement by a group of chance outcomes obtained from the Chinese I Ching system.
As noted above, moral luck (i.e., moral judgments that are sensitive even to chance outcomes) is substantially stronger for blame judgments than for acceptability judgments.
While creating experiments that can lead to chance outcomes does not require particular scientific skill, recognizing the importance of accidental discoveries is one of the hallmarks of sound science.
Although chance outcomes only play a small role in adults' moral judgments of a person's character or conduct (i.e., acceptability judgments), they play a large role in the assignment of blame and punishment1, 4, 23, 24 (i.e., blame judgments) (for a more detailed discussion, see Supplementary Text S1).
Is the sample size sufficient and well constructed to address issues of chance outcomes?
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com