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"They face a very real chance of extinction if ivory poaching continues unabated.
About half of the 23 species remain widespread and numerous with little chance of extinction.
When we assume equal poaching probability among breeders and transients combined with strict polygyny, extinction probability increases from 2.2% chance of extinction under poaching of two tigers, to 62.6% chance of extinction under poaching of four tigers annually.
Similar epidemics could sweep through other vulnerable species with low genetic variation, increasing their chance of extinction.
The results of this study revealed that under the status quo where 250 miners are present in the Park, the population of white-lipped peccaries has a about a 40% chance of extinction within five years and about a 99% chance of extinction within 10 years.
In a letter published in the respected journal Science, Prof David Lindenmayer, of the Australian National University, states that "government-sanctioned legal logging of the reserve system will significantly increase the chance of extinction of Leadbeater's possum".
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Clades exhibiting fast substitution rates may therefore be more likely survive rapidly changing or novel environments, in spite of the fact that they otherwise have increased chances of extinction because of their relatively higher levels of mutational genetic load.
The main differences are that in Lehmann et al. (2007) greater collective action in a group did not reduce its chances of extinction, and instead, it increased its average fitness, and the two traits were transmitted genetically, not culturally.
The combined effect of rabies and CDV increases the chance of pack extinction, exacerbating the typically slow recovery of wolf populations, and represents a key extinction threat to populations of this highly endangered carnivore.
The interesting finding was made that there is a high chance of virus extinction while only one or two infected cells were present, but that no extinction occurs once three infected cells exist.
Hence, elimination of much of the metapopulation structure of some species can increase the chance of regional extinction of species.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com