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China, for its part, seemed caught by surprise, and by Tuesday night, Chinese news portals were leading with an optimistic line: "Experts Say Little Chance of Escalation in the Attacks".
Tactical nukes posed obvious political and strategic problems — the NATO allies did not welcome the prospect of even limited nuclear war in Europe, and there was always the chance of escalation into full-blown nuclear conflict.
During the standoff, President John F. Kennedy thought the chance of escalation to war was "between 1 in 3 and even," and what we have learned in later decades has done nothing to lengthen those odds.
(No "sustained fighting"?) And given reports of covert operatives, the pressure to end a stalemate, and the continuing threat to civilians, the assertion that there is no "significant chance of escalation" is mysterious — does it just mean that we promise we won't go in too deep?
If Iran is determined to have a clash at sea, our military response should be forceful and precise, one that would remove the threat to the sea lanes while reducing the chance of escalation and minimizing the chances of a wider war.
The Administration adds a second set of rationalizations, which make even less sense: U.S. operations do not involve sustained fighting or active exchanges of fire with hostile forces, nor do they involve the presence of U.S. ground troops, U.S. casualties or a serious threat thereof, or any significant chance of escalation into a conflict characterized by those factors.
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I have written in the past about the danger that threats of "cross-domain response" to cyberattacks could increase the chance of conflict escalation while simultaneously lacking the credibility to deter possible cyber attackers.
Foreign policy and military experts say that even limited strikes could risk pulling the U.S. further into a conflict with no clear exit strategy, and the establishment of a "red line" could mean greater chance of military escalation.
Some Israeli officials and analysts said that an American confrontation with Iraq and the deployment of thousands more American troops in the region could make Iran and Syria more cautious and reduce the chances of an escalation of tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Although options for more-expansive actions were also discussed, the plan that Trump ultimately endorsed, with a mix of air- and sea-launched missiles and sophisticated standoff airstrikes, was designed to minimize risk to U.S. and allied personnel and lessen the chances of unwanted escalation, officials said.
Without such backing, a war that went badly could have serious political repercussions; and the chance of an unpredictable escalation of U.S. involvement is significant.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com