For all OPV cessation options the costs drop dramatically after OPV13 cessation in 2019, which coincides with the cessation of SIAs for RC without SIAs.
On this scale, the burdens for RC with SIAs and all OPV cessation options remain negligible until the time when larger, uncontrolled outbreaks occur in a small number of iterations, resulting in bumps in the average numbers of cases.
However, given that we are not assessing a pharmaceutical and that other ICERs of smoking cessation options are among the lowest of all health interventions, we used a $20,000 acceptable threshold [ 5].
Alternatively, keeping the relapse rate at our base level (10% years 2-6, 4% thereafter), the quit rate for the genetic-testing option needs to be at least 29% to dominate the usual smoking-cessation option.
This irks big pharmaceutical companies which manufacture smoking-cessation options, such as gum and patches.
We report ICERS and INBs from a societal perspective in 2015 for each alternative OPV cessation timing option compared to the current timing plan of OPV2 cessation in April 2016 followed by OPV13 cessation in April 2019, based on expected costs and cases during 2015 2019.
The global model assumes that surveillance, treatment, and other programmatic activities remain the same for the main policy options [ 34] and the alternative OPV cessation timing options considered in this analysis.
However, the expected amounts of vaccine of different OPV formulations needed changes dramatically with each OPV cessation timing option.
This study uses modeling to explore the health and economic implications of different OPV cessation timing options and the associated numbers of different formulations of poliovirus vaccines needed for each option.
Table 1 lists the different OPV cessation timing options modeled.
Despite the importance of the choices, no prior studies have characterized the health or economic impacts of different OPV cessation timing options.
