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Reporting a single value can inspire false confidence in the certainty of results, so uncertainty estimates are a valuable addition to the set of tool outputs.
The number and characteristics of studies provided, the certainty of results, and the observed effects determine the level or quality of evidence ('proof', 'indication' or 'hint') [3].
If the available studies are suitable for meta-analysis, results from individual studies should be pooled quantitatively to enhance the validity and certainty of results (Section 7.2.1, 7.2.2 and 7.3.8 IQWiG GM 4.0, and Section 4.2.5.3 Suppl. G-BA VerfO).
Table 1 Requirements for the conclusions of early benefit assessment in Germany Requirement Conclusion Number of studies Certainty of results Effect Proof ≥ 2 Mostly high In the same direction Indication ≥ 2 Mostly moderate In the same direction 1 High Statistically significant Hint ≥ 2 Mostly low In the same direction 1 Moderate Statistically significant.
The certainty of results for a given study depends on quality of the evidence base and in particular three factors: the type of study design (evidence level), the internal validity, and the size of the observed effect (Section 3.3.2 IQWiG GM 4.0).
The number of patients and the follow-up times are sufficient to establish results and significances, but a larger study population and longer follow-up times would increase the certainty of results.
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Since DST is able to unravel certainties of results we applied it in a spatially explicit manner to visualize the resulting certainties of the different approaches as discussed in Section 4.2.
This different emphasis (on the certainty of single results and on the uncertainty in the summarizing reviews) may result in an inconsistent picture of the (un certainty in the research on the environmental fate of nanoparticles, which may open up room for different interpretations.
Particle physicists use a "sigma" scale to rank the certainty of their results which ranges from one to five.
Research papers and mass media tend to emphasize more the certainty of their results or topics.
The uncertainty analysis presented in this work looks for establishing a confidence degree or certainty of experimental results.
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