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A projected 30-centimeter rise in sea levels in the Philippines by 2045 would flood 2,000 hectares, or 5,000 acres, affecting 500,000 people, the report says.
This is not good news in a country of 150 million people – even a relatively moderate 10 or 20 centimeters rise in sea level could displace millions within the next 15 years.
Even draconian emission controls would only limit sea level rise to a serious 40-centimeter rise by 2100.
Mom's test was clear that day, but three months later, she stepped out of the shower and saw a 4 centimeter lump rising out of her own breast in the mirror.
While the film provides a reasonably clear account of the technical issues involved — there is much discussion about acceptable degrees of warming, centimeters of ocean rise and parts per million of carbon dioxide in the air — it also sheds light on some of the 21st-century rituals of power and diplomacy.
Other support for the model has come from monitoring how shorelines respond to seasonal changes in wave and wind patterns, investigating how extreme events like tsunamis reshape islands, and analyzing aerial photos and satellite images from the past 60 years, which have shown that the 15-centimeter sea-level rise over the past half-century has had no discernible effect on atolls.
The resulting "improved estimate" ranges from 80 centimeters to 200 centimeters of sea level rise by the end of the century.
The upshot: Assuming a midrange emissions scenario, ice sheets and continental glaciers alone will contribute between 3.5 centimeters and 36.8 centimeters of sea-level rise by 2100.
Pine Island Glacier is part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and is projected to add one centimeter of sea-level rise in the next couple decades.
"In another 75 years, the sea might rise three centimeters," he said.
Under another scenario, sea levels could rise 100 centimeters by 2080, affecting 2.5 million people in the Manila Bay area.
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