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Possibilities include neural nets, various classification methods (e.g. support vector machines), CART, counting risk factors, or indeed any method that can define mutually exclusive groups.
This strategy was not used in the time-series studies because existing package does not apply CART to count data.
Nineteen percent (14/74) of the patients with a pre-cART CD4 count ≥50 cells/µl and a BMI ≥18.5 had developed IRIS by 10 months on cART, whereas all 13 patients with a pre-cART CD4 cells/µl cells/µl and a pre-cART BMI<18.5 either had developed IRIS (7/13, 54%) or had died (6/13, 46%) by month 7 (logrank test p = 0.01).
Our results also suggest that both the pre-cART CD4 count and BMI could be relevant predictors for OI-IRIS development, but not for MC-IRIS.
Substantial heterogeneity exists across studies, but the predictor most consistently associated with IRIS development is a low pre-cART CD4 count.
Pre-cART CD4 count <50 cells/µl, HIV RNA >5 log10 copies/ml and BMI <18.5 were independently associated with OI-IRIS, but only the BMI showed a trend for predicting MC-IRIS (Table 4).
In accordance with a UK-CHIC study [6], any mono/dual drug regimen taken before cART was counted as one additional failed regimen, because they were generally not virologically suppressive and HIV-1 RNA was not routinely measured at that time.
A similar effect was also observed for participants with pre-cART CD4 counts between 200 350 cells/mm for those vaccinated before or after HIV diagnosis (−141 cells/mm, 95% CI −189, −94; P < 0.001 and −81 cells/mm, −167, 5; P = 0.067, respectively).
CD4 cell count, cART status and HIV RNA level are included as time-updated variables.
