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As a result, world carryover stocks of grain have dropped to 54 days of consumption, the lowest on record.
They represent only 1.0percentt of world cereal carryover stocks.
However, in Europe, good production may lower imports, especially in the EU where carryover stocks are also large.
· The estimated level of global cereal carryover stocks in 1993 corresponds to 20percentt of the forecast trend utilization in 1993/94.
However, imports by Brazil could decline by 1 million tonnes, given a rise in production and large carryover stocks.
Thus, carryover stocks at the end of the 1993/94 marketing year may decline by a projected 19 million tonnes to 332 million tonnes.
With regard to supplies, the 2005/06 increase over last season is estimated at 4percentt due to the recovery of carryover stocks from last season's exceptionally low level.
· World cereal carryover stocks at the close of crop years ending in 1993 is estimated to be 351 million tonnes, 24 million tonnes or 7percentt above the level of 1992.
In the United States alone, cereal carryover stocks increased by 31 million tonnes, to 78 million tonnes, as a result of the major pickup mainly in coarse grain production in 1992.
Maize exports from China are likely to decline as production is expected to be smaller and exceptionally strong sales during the current season have already resulted in smaller carryover stocks.
A sharp drop in maize output is also forecast for South Africa, mainly reflecting a decrease in the area due to low prices during the planting period and a high level of carryover stocks.
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