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It is noteworthy that the exponential growth models did not fit the data sets, as indicated by effective sample size (ESS) scores <200 (data not shown).
Mixing was assessed by trend plots for estimates over the runs and by effective sample size (ESS) values.
The MCMC runs were repeated to refine skyline parameters and the convergence of the chains to the stationary distribution was confirmed by effective sample size (>100) for all parameters using TRACER (Rambaut et al. 2014).
As a concern for meta-analysis of diagnostic trials, publication bias was tested using the funnel plot and Deeks test [ 18], which was conducted by a regression of diagnostic log odds ratio against 1/sqrt effective sample size), weighting by effective sample size, with P < 0.10 for the slope coefficient indicating significant asymmetry.
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Convergence of run replicates was confirmed by effective sample sizes (ESS) >1200 for all parameters and by visual inspection of traces within and between replicates in Tracer v1.5.
Each run was repeated three times to check for consistency of results, and T RACER v. 1.4 was used to assess whether the program had run for sufficiently long, as indicated by effective sample sizes of no less than 200, and trendlines with stable likelihood values.
Convergence statistics were monitored by effective samples sizes (ESS), in Tracer v1.5.
Convergence of the model was checked visually and by the effective sample size statistic with TRACER.
Mixing was monitored by observing effective sample size (ESS) values and inspecting parameter plots for trends.
Convergence was checked by visual inspection of the sample trace plots, of posterior density plots and by determining effective sample size using the Coda package in R [ 23].
Two chains were run up to 72 hours, each with geodesic averaging of traits, and convergence of chains was determined by an effective sample size (ESS) greater than 300 for all parameters, with the exception of the ancestral state at the root, where the sampling state is especially difficult over large evolutionary time periods.
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