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Can't you infer from that poll that Mr. Obama is ahead by about two points nationally?
In the Real Clear Politics poll-of-polls, Obama is leading by about two points.
But Mr. Kerry nevertheless came into his convention with a lead, and he maintained it — then he lost the popular vote by about two points instead.
With the lift from the Fox numbers, the Real Clear Politics average has Bush ahead of Walker by about two points, which is within the margin of error.
But the polls, as a whole, remain consistent with the idea that they may end up settling where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama ahead by about two points.
It is designed to be a little skeptical that, for instance, Mr. Obama is actually leading by a larger margin in Ohio (by about three points in the polls) than in the national numbers (where he leads by about two points).
Similar(52)
As could have been predicted by the myriad polls conducted this year, Gallup found the president's popularity had taken a hit everywhere--by about two points nationally.
Mr. Bush won Colorado by about eight points in 2000.
Polls currently show Clinton beating him by about five points.
The forecast model now projects Mr. Obama to win Pennsylvania by about seven points.
She responded, "Around six months," and the Dow Jones average fell by about two hundred points.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com