(3) The loss of agricultural land and increase in built-up areas will continue in the short-term future (up to 2025), and the sprawl of the built-up areas will extend in every direction in the PNA.
Based on changes which occurred between 1984 and 2015, the Cellular Automata Markov Chain analysis predicted that high density built-up areas will increase monotonically from 470.02 in 2015 to 490.36 km2 in 2045.
The CA-Markov model estimated that this unsustainable trend will continue in the future and built-up areas will be increased by 10% by 2022 resulting in potential loss of 438.03 ha agriculture land, 638.37 ha wasteland, and 17.01 ha gardens.
At the same time, the horizontal rapid expansion of built-up areas will lead to discontinuous suburbs with low density and uneven pattern (Tewolde and Cabral 2011; Varshney 2013).
It is clear that without attention to planning for protective procedures, the trend toward changing agricultural and forestland to built-up areas will continue and have adverse effects on the regional environment.
The results of Markov chain analysis indicates that when other terms and conditions are held constant, the current conversion rate from agricultural and forestland to built-up areas will decrease the amount of these types of land use 3.2%and4.1%1%, respectively in 10 years.
What was disturbing, however, was the reported content of this "freeze". According to press accounts, this so-called agreement provides that: Only construction beyond current built-up areas will be frozen; no new settlements will be created; no additional land will be expropriated for the purpose of construction.
Due to the need of built up area, while the existing land area is very limited, so the shortage land will occur in the future.
"As time goes by this area will be built up and gentrified," he said.
