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But if there are not enough cuts, she said, that could also cause the broader bond market to swoon.
Mutual funds are beginning to play an important role in the broader bond market.Since 2000 the government has also allowed the development of a derivatives market.
But some analysts said the main purpose was to send a message to the market for commercial paper and the broader bond market, both of which have been rattled since at least mid-July because of difficulties in the subprime mortgage market.
US Treasury yields rose 10 basis points on Tuesday, signs of a broader bond retreat and then we saw the very weak first quarter GDP figures (these should not have been a surprise to those who focused on the Atlanta Fed model).
China could use outside help in establishing a broader bond market as a financing alternative.
But Merrill's full-service customers will still have access to a much broader bond selection through their broker.
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And are they the harbingers of a broader bond-market bust?The pessimistic interpretation is that this reflects concerns about America's fiscal mess (see article), in a paler version of bondholders' jitters about Greece and Spain.
Ivan Chung of Moody's, another ratings agency, notes that the absence of defaults has left the immature market without the proper infrastructure for working out such things as creditors' meetings, bankruptcy proceedings and the pecking order of various bondholders.Moreover, there is little chance that a default this week will to lead to a broader bond-market seizure.
For this example, you would use a balanced index — 60 percent of which tracked a broad stock market index like the Wilshire 5000, and 40 percent of which mirrored a broad bond index like the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate.
Daniel Wiener, editor of the Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors and manager of $540 million in client assets, noted that even in 1994 and 1995, when the Fed raised rates by three percentage points in six months, prompting a broad bond sell-off, bonds rebounded within a year.
Had you diversified properly — say, by putting 40percentt of your money in the S.& P. 500; 25percentt in foreign stocks in the MSCI EAFE index; 25percentt in the broad bond market as represented by the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond index; and 10percentt in cash instruments like Treasury bills, you would still be down, but your portfolio would be worth more than $72,825.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com