The current US need to import 2m bpd, much of it from Saudi Arabia, may soon simply evaporate.
That could leave the US free to become a net exporter, to the tune of 4.7m bpd of oil and LNG.
According to Citibank, shale oil and new Arctic oilfields may see US production doubling to 14.2m barrels per day (bpd) by 2020.
According to some estimates, the cartel is currently using all but 1.5m bpd of its full capacity.
According to reports in the Financial Times, the International Monetary Fund's next World Economic Outlook, due next month, will urge OPEC to raise its margin of spare capacity to as much as 5m bpd.
Supply caught up with demand, prices fell back sharply, and OPEC even saw fit to cut its official production quotas by 1m bpd in December.Before the meeting in Isfahan, on Wednesday, OPEC's swing producer, Saudi Arabia, had called for the cartel to agree an output rise of 500,000 bpd (to 27.5m bpd) to cool oil prices.
This month Iraq is set to export a record 3.75m barrels per day (bpd).
But the heavily state-controlled oil sector needs substantial investment to meet its advertised target of 8m bpd by 2020, and the government lacks the necessary funds.
Unlike last year, they now have roughly 3m bpd of spare capacity they could tap.
The United States now imports about 11m barrels of oil per day (bpd), around a seventh of the world's total production.
And even though at the moment it is cranking out nearly 10m bpd, roughly the same as Saudi Arabia, it will not be able to keep it up.Hands off our oilThe biggest obstacle the majors face in replacing their reserves is the fundamental perversity of the oil business.
