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Defining a range of plausibility – the scenarios are intended to present relatively radical futures which define the boundaries of plausible futures.
Applications of these scenarios should consider their scope and limitations: Long time frame – they are relevant in the scope of long time frame Contrasting – they are, to a significant extent, mutually exclusive Defining a range of plausibility – the scenarios are intended to present relatively radical futures which define the boundaries of plausible futures.
They are not attempts to predict the future; rather, they should aim to sketch possible futures within the boundaries of plausible developments.
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This study makes use of exploratory modeling in GIS to delineate boundaries of likely and plausible variability in past Oregon forests due to natural fire disturbance processes interacting with climate change, and compares those with current forests modified by harvest disturbance and with a hypothetical forest scenario.
The goal of exploratory modeling is to better understand the system of interest through delineation of plausible boundaries, description of patterns within multidimensional model space, and to the extent possible, quantification of the likelihood of occurrence of different model outcomes.
These algorithms can be used to check whether the extremal values are reached for flux distributions lying on the boundary of the simplex of plausible flux distributions.
The Heritage Foundation has never made a secret of its conservative political orientation, but it has generally tried to remain within plausible boundaries of analysis.
But the existence of plausible bad futures within the boundaries raises the obverse question: are there good futures outside them?
We considered the upper and lower boundaries defined by these three response categories to be the range of plausible values, and chose the median from the most frequent response risk-category to be the point estimate for sensitivity analyses.
The Base set of assumptions is the one likely to occur according to our judgement, while the other two reflect our opinion about the plausible highest and lowest boundaries of future migration developments.
Both are sort of plausible.
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