As explained before, this is reasonable, because both NOA and IAA sets of forecasts are initialized from the same analysis.
Six sets of forecasts are made, by varying the length of the past data (training period), ranging from 5 to 10 years.
To evaluate the prospective forecasts, we consider the following four sets of forecasts: (1) 93 probabilities for the first trial (July 2006 to June 2007), (2) 127 probabilities for the second trial (2008), (3) 145 probabilities for the third trial (2009), and (4) 365 combined probabilities for all three trials.
The team used a computer model to compile two sets of forecasts, one with observed atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures and the other stripped of the warming already resulting from climate change.
George Eaton at The Staggers points out one set of forecasts George Osborne chose not to mention - wages.
Now, instead of making a single, best-guess, forecast, a set of forecasts are made for the weather next week.
The next set of forecasts, which the government commissioned in 1998 when the company was financially restructured, was less optimistic.
Unemployment will remain at "very high" levels, according to a gloomy set of forecasts issued by the European Commission.
The set of forecasts start from different, but equally likely, starting conditions estimated from our measurements of the atmosphere.
