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We introduce a general validation metric that can be used to characterize the disagreement between the quantitative predictions from a model and relevant empirical data when either or both predictions and data are expressed as probability distributions.
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Results indicate agreement between model predictions and data for both simple and complex plant morphologies.
Features research reports, annual summaries, predictions, and data from the National Weather Service.
There was congruence between all five predictions and data.
AQ: Participated in miRNA predictions and data analyses.
OU: Participated in miRNA predictions and data analyses.
Our cut-off values in both prediction and degradome sequencing data analysis were also set to <2.5 as used in previous studies on poplar miRNA target prediction.
To score the prediction against the real stepping data, we first converted both the prediction and real data into spike trains, by placing spikes at the transitions from stance to swing.
Since both status prediction and sequencing data can contain errors, we allowed for some non-concordant animals.
The predicted presences/absences were then related to the observed presences/absences, and aggregated over all farms, from which summaries an odds ratio was calculated by (1) OR = F + + × F − − F + − × F − + where F++ is the number of farms that are positive for both model prediction and observed data, and the meanings of F−−, F+- and F-+ follow accordingly [ 6].
To evaluate each model's accuracy in predicting the observed infection status of each individual IPRAVE farm, an empirical estimate of the odds ratio for each independent sample was calculated by: (9) O R = F + + × F − − F + − × F − +, where F++ is the number of farms that are positive for both model prediction and observed data, and the meanings of F--, F+- and F-+ follow accordingly.
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