Eleven health interventions were selected to conduct this study and four probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile of selected diseases.
The interventions were selected based on the causes of death among children aged under-five in Ghana (malaria, 32%; neonatal death, 29%; pneumonia, 15%; diarrhoea, 12%; HIV/AIDS, 6%; measles, 3%; and injuries, 3%)[1], the effectiveness of the interventions for these causes of death, and the past trends in intervention coverage in the country.
Interventions were selected according to the strength of evidence supporting their effectiveness as well as recommendations from published guidelines (see appendices 2 4 on bmj.com).
In short, first interventions were selected based on the available evidence on effectiveness from systematic reviews and their relevance for the Dutch setting.
A total of eight population-based and individual primary prevention interventions were selected to evaluate their impact over a 10 year period.
Interventions were selected in accordance with CDC recommendations for incorporating HIV prevention into the medical care of persons living with HIV[ 14].
Following a discussion of the reviewed teaching materials, teachers and school management in the four schools, the types of IEC materials that could be used in their interventions were selected.
The stochastic approach enables a unique targeting method, where interventions are selected to maximize the likelihood of BG in a clinically specified range, while providing a clinically specified maximum acceptable risk of light hypoglycemia.
