A month ago, both human forecasters and computer models had some inkling of the worldwide weathermaker's return, but a sudden warming ushering in El Niño caught them by surprise.
In addition to their weather reporting function, these vessels aided in search and rescue operations, supported transatlantic flights, acted as research platforms for oceanographers, monitored marine pollution, and aided weather forecasting both by weather forecasters and within computerized atmospheric models.
It also appears that inflation expectations, both of professional forecasters and households, have become de-anchored below the Fed's target.
If the recession is nearing an end, then the two forces that deserve the most credit for keeping the downturn narrow will be the Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates 11 times during the year, and American consumers, whose innate optimism surprised many forecasters both before and after Sept. 11.
Outlooks were repeatedly revised down as forecasters, both public and private, tried to catch up with financial markets.
SG 84 (new) Martin Raymond and Chris Sanderson, Trend Forecasters Together both personally (civil ceremony in April) and in business, Raymond, 44, and Sanderson, 38, run The Future Laboratory, one of Europe's most influential trend forecasting consultancies.
By the early afternoon hours, forecasters at both the SPC and the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Norman, Oklahoma realized that a major event was likely to take place.
Flash flood warnings are in place in both Louisiana and Mississippi, as weather forecasters warn that the heaviest rain is yet to come, and will make landfall on Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
In both business and government, economic forecasters said, belts will be worn tighter this winter.
The forecasters now expect both growth and inflation in America to be slightly lower in 2007 than they thought last month: GDP will rise by 2.2% and consumer prices by 2.1%.
